Emerging-markets debt and equity research from Ashmore.
Ashmore's weekly research argues that record US tech equity issuance (Google, Meta, SpaceX totalling USD 300–400bn) is landing on an over-extended market characterised by stretched positioning, record valuations (~21x earnings), and front-end rates now pricing two Fed hikes over the next 12 months. The note also covers EM developments including India's FAR expansion to attract foreign bond inflows, South Korea's KRW defence measures, Argentina's early IMF reserve target, and political runoffs in Colombia and Peru.
Ashmore's Global Head of Research Gustavo Medeiros and Head of EM Equity Strategy Dhiren Shah discuss the AI-driven investment cycle's implications for emerging markets, focusing on semiconductor supply chain winners (TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix), valuation opportunities in non-AI EM equities, and macro risks including the Strait of Hormuz disruption, US tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical dynamics across Latin America and China. The webinar argues that while AI hardware beneficiaries remain fundamentally attractive, elevated valuations have prompted profit-taking, with capital being redeployed into high-quality EM companies whose stock prices have declined 20–25% despite improving fundamentals.
Ashmore Group's weekly EM investor research covers Colombia's first-round presidential election result, where right-wing candidate De la Espriella led with 43.7% ahead of a runoff against leftist Cepeda, with both candidates now offering more orthodox fiscal programmes than expected. The note also reviews May EM asset performance (MSCI EM +9.7%), the fragile US-Iran ceasefire and its impact on oil prices, and country-level macro developments across Latin America, Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe.
Ashmore's May 2026 Emerging View argues that the AI capex supercycle—projected to reach USD 780–820bn globally in 2026 and USD 1trn+ by 2027—represents the largest transfer of capital from developed markets to emerging markets in modern history, driven by EM dominance in semiconductors and memory. The piece maps supply bottlenecks across chips, energy, and data centre infrastructure, concluding that TSMC's monopoly on frontier chip manufacturing, Jevons' Paradox on compute demand, and strong hyperscaler balance sheets make a leverage-induced bust unlikely and support a multi-year EM equity tailwind.
Ashmore's insights page aggregates its latest weekly investor research, thematic "Emerging View" reports, and video webinars covering emerging market equities, debt, and macro developments. Key recurring themes across the listed pieces include Strait of Hormuz/Iran-US tensions, AI and semiconductor cycles, EM political risk, and central bank policy divergence.
Ashmore Group argues that the ~$12.6trn in pro-cyclical US fiscal deficits since the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is the primary driver of US equity outperformance, closely matching the ~$13.1trn excess market capitalisation of the S&P 500 above its long-run earnings trend. The paper contends that fiscal consolidation pressures, combined with the DeepSeek AI disruption narrative, provide a catalyst for investors to rotate out of crowded US equities into Emerging Markets.