Global macro and private markets insights from The Carlyle Group.

Carlyle's Q2 2026 Global Private Markets Quarterly examines Q1 2026 private markets activity, highlighting a notable rotation from asset-light software and tech toward hard-asset industries such as utilities, energy, and industrials, which accounted for 46% of buyout deal volumes. The report also covers record secondary market activity, resilient venture and buyout deal flow despite macro uncertainty, and localized stress in software-related private credit.

Carlyle's Q2 2026 outlook identifies five structural themes shaping markets: the US transition to net energy exporter, AI infrastructure investment and its earnings implications, rising defense spending and geopolitical realignment, growing policy engagement with private capital, and AI-driven differentiation in credit markets. The firm argues that market resilience is explicable through these underlying forces, and that a data-driven, disciplined approach is warranted amid converging but often misaligned macro dynamics.

Carlyle's Head of Global Research Jason Thomas and Head of Global Credit Mark Jenkins assess a potential turning point in the private credit cycle driven by a reversal in fund flows stemming from technology-sector concerns rather than a systemic macroeconomic shock. The paper examines implications for spreads, defaults, refinancing risk (particularly in software), and portfolio construction, emphasizing diversification across industries and geographies.

Carlyle Private Equity Partners CEO John Pavelski discusses how higher interest rates, increased market concentration, and greater return dispersion are reshaping the private equity landscape. He argues that differentiated capabilities in private equity are becoming more critical for navigating risk and identifying opportunities in the current environment.

Carlyle AlpInvest examines the rapidly maturing credit secondaries market, estimating it at $20+ billion in 2025 and projecting growth to $80+ billion by 2030, driven by continued expansion of the private credit market and broader institutional adoption. The paper covers market structure across LP interest purchases, GP continuation solutions, and GP strategic solutions, with emphasis on pricing complexity, underwriting discipline, and the information advantages that will differentiate skilled buyers.
This is Carlyle Group's Global Insights hub, aggregating thought leadership across private equity, private credit, infrastructure, and real estate, including Q1 2026 private markets commentary, a 2026 credit market outlook, and ESG reporting. Featured pieces address deal flow trends, technology-driven fund flow reversals in credit markets, and case studies such as Medline and JFK Terminal One.