Quarterly market and sector outlooks from Fidelity.

Fidelity's 2025 Investor Insights Study examines the evolving preferences of wealthy Gen X, Y, and Z households compared to baby boomers, highlighting their demand for holistic financial planning, greater advisor transparency, and non-traditional products such as active ETFs, liquid alternatives, and cryptocurrencies. As the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history unfolds, the study provides advisors with data-driven guidance on adapting their service models to meet the distinctive expectations of next-generation high-net-worth clients.

Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team identifies five key forces for 2026: narrowing of the gap between policy uncertainty and low market volatility, potential outperformance of non-U.S. equities on valuation grounds, Fed policy complications from persistent inflation and high debt, AI-driven capex supporting U.S. business health, and the growing sensitivity of economic growth to asset-price changes. The paper offers a broad multi-asset outlook with directional views across equities, monetary policy, currencies, and fiscal dynamics.

Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team reviews Q1 2026 market performance, highlighting strong commodity and energy returns driven by geopolitical conflict and oil price spikes, while equities and bonds declined amid persistent inflation, tariff pressures, and policy uncertainty. The team advocates for diversified portfolios weighted toward inflation-resistant assets, noting fixed income valuations have reset closer to long-term averages while equity performance diverged sharply by sector, style, and region.

Fidelity's white paper argues that limited-term investment-grade bond strategies offer a practical middle ground between money market products and longer-duration fixed income, delivering higher income than cash with materially lower interest-rate sensitivity. The paper highlights that active managers in this segment have added value over 5- and 10-year periods, and that carry, roll-down, and modest duration exposure support attractive return potential if money market yields remain subdued.
Fidelity Institutional's Capital Markets Strategy Group analyzes how Middle East geopolitical risk and a strong U.S. jobs report are simultaneously pressuring oil prices, inflation expectations, Fed policy, rates, and equity leadership. The piece argues that a resolution of Iran-related tensions would strip the geopolitical risk premium from oil, modestly ease inflation dynamics, reduce rate-hike optionality, and shift equity leadership toward cyclicals, small caps, and international stocks rather than driving a broad index rally.

Fidelity's Quantitative Market Research Team reviews Q1 2026 equity sector performance, noting that energy, materials, and utilities led while geopolitical tensions weighed on the S&P 500. The update identifies technology and industrials as attractive going forward, supported by strong fundamentals and relative strength respectively, and notes historical precedent for positive index returns following major geopolitical shocks.

Fidelity Institutional's Capital Markets Strategy Group presents its Q2 2026 outlook, expressing cautious optimism as strong economic growth and broadening earnings are seen outweighing near-term headwinds such as geopolitical risks, delayed rate cuts, and policy uncertainty. The report favors intermediate duration bonds, balanced domestic equities, international diversification, and small/mid-cap allocations, supported by tailwinds including AI adoption, resilient consumers, and fiscal policy.

Fidelity outlines six key trends set to reshape wealth management in 2026, covering AI adoption (with productivity gains of 25–40% projected), the decline of the 60/40 portfolio in favor of private markets and alternatives, record RIA M&A activity, and shifting HNW client priorities around cybersecurity and time-value. The piece combines proprietary survey data with third-party research to offer actionable guidance for advisors on segmentation, technology adoption, and competitive positioning.

Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team (AART) warns of a rising "stagflation-light" risk driven by energy supply disruptions linked to Iran and broader geopolitical tensions, expecting peak inflation to exceed market consensus. The piece draws on historical secondary inflation wave patterns and argues that persistent supply shocks could combine with slower growth to create a challenging macro environment for investors.