Northern Trust Asset Management
Asset-allocation and quant research from Northern Trust Asset Management.
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Multi-AssetEquitiesFixed Income
Research
Northern Trust Asset ManagementMulti-Asset
Tariff Endgame Taking Shape | Weekly Economic Commentary | Northern Trust
Northern Trust's Chief U.S. Economist Ryan Boyle argues that new Section 301 tariffs of up to 12.5% against 60 nations—justified on forced labor and industrial overcapacity grounds—are legally durable and effectively reconstruct the tariff structure previously struck down under emergency measures. The commentary concludes that regardless of shifting rationales or legal challenges, tariffs will remain a persistent cost of doing business with the United States for the foreseeable future.
Northern Trust Asset ManagementCommodities
Fertilizer and Food | Weekly Economic Commentary | Northern Trust
Northern Trust's Chief International Economist Vaibhav Tandon examines how disruptions to fertilizer supply chains—driven by a three-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz—are triggering a 12%+ rise in the World Bank's fertilizer index and threatening global food production, with the FAO estimating a 5% decline in cereal output in 2026. The commentary assesses the differential impact across regions, highlighting heightened vulnerability in import-dependent economies like India versus more resilient advanced economies, and surveys policy responses including the EU's Fertilizer Action Plan and Asian government subsidies.
Northern Trust Asset ManagementMulti-Asset
Trimming Inflation | Weekly Economic Commentary | Northern Trust
Northern Trust Chief Economist Carl Tannenbaum examines the merits and limitations of "trimmed-mean" inflation measures, which incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has advocated, noting that the Dallas Fed's trimmed-mean PCE currently reads 2.4% versus core PCE at 3.3%. The commentary weighs proponents' arguments—that trimmed-mean gauges reduce noise from one-time price shocks—against critics' concerns that cherry-picking a lower metric could bias the Fed toward premature easing.
Northern Trust Asset ManagementMulti-Asset
Canada’s Economic Woes | Weekly Economic Commentary | Northern Trust
Northern Trust's Chief International Economist Vaibhav Tandon examines Canada's broad-based economic slowdown, citing two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, five quarters of declining business investment, a 20% drop in housing prices from post-pandemic peaks, and demographic headwinds from tightening immigration policy. The commentary assesses fiscal stimulus measures (~1.2% of GDP) and Bank of Canada policy optionality as partial offsets, while flagging trade vulnerabilities and household debt as key downside risks.
Northern Trust Asset ManagementMulti-Asset
Reflections From Asia | Weekly Economic Commentary | Northern Trust
Northern Trust Chief Economist Carl Tannenbaum shares on-the-ground observations from visits to four Asian capitals, covering China's energy transition, trade war preparedness, and the region's broad participation in the AI-driven electronics boom. The piece concludes that Asia is positioned for continued growth despite ongoing U.S. tariff escalation, though American consumer demand remains a critical swing factor for the global outlook.
Northern Trust Asset ManagementEquities
Upcoming Mega-Cap IPOs: Implications for Index Investors | Northern Trust
Northern Trust Asset Management examines the index implementation challenges posed by an incoming wave of mega-cap U.S. IPOs—led by SpaceX (June 12, 2026)—analyzing how differing fast-entry rules across S&P, MSCI, Russell, FTSE, and Nasdaq will produce staggered, float-driven benchmark inclusions. The piece provides scenario analysis showing that for a $1.5 billion MSCI World portfolio, combined exposure to SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could range from ~$3 million (5% float) to ~$30 million (50% float), with lock-up releases likely representing larger index events than the IPOs themselves.