PIMCO
Fixed income and macro research, including the Cyclical and Secular Outlooks.
United States24 articlesLast published 15 Jun 2026
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Research
PIMCOFixed Income
Rupture and Resilience: 2026 Global Economic Outlook, Geopolitics, and Fixed Income Investment Strategy | PIMCO
PIMCO's 2026 Secular Outlook argues that geopolitical fragmentation, AI-driven capital spending (~$14 trillion over five years), and fiscal strain are widening the distribution of global macro outcomes and accelerating a credit loss cycle in lower-quality debt. The firm recommends diversified, high-quality fixed income portfolios targeting 5%–7% yields in local-currency terms, favouring asset-based finance and publicly traded credit over leveraged and private direct lending.
15 Jun 2026
PIMCOPrivate Markets
How Large Is Private Credit’s Total Addressable Market, Really? | PIMCO
PIMCO's Lotfi Karoui argues that popular private credit TAM estimates are inflated by conflating outstanding loan stocks with substitutable flows, and that the concept is most rigorously applicable to asset-based finance (ABF). After excluding already-securitized assets, insurer holdings, and existing ABF vehicles from a ~$25 trillion U.S. loan universe, PIMCO estimates a realistic long-run private credit opportunity of $6–$8 trillion.
15 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
Deficit Dynamics: Navigating the U.S. Fiscal Landscape (video) | PIMCO
PIMCO Group CIO Dan Ivascyn discusses the risks posed by rising U.S. fiscal deficits, noting that while the dollar's reserve currency status affords some buffer, elevated deficits are likely to keep real rates and yield curve steepness higher than otherwise, with increased volatility. Ivascyn outlines four portfolio responses: global fixed income diversification (UK, Australia, select EM), concentrating duration in the 5–10 year range, adding inflation protection via TIPS and commodities, and maintaining higher liquidity to navigate political and fiscal uncertainty.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOMulti-Asset
Trade Wars and the U.S. Dollar | PIMCO
PIMCO's Marc Seidner and Pramol Dhawan argue that U.S. tariff policy is structurally undermining the dollar's reserve currency status, with parallel declines in the dollar, equities, and Treasuries echoing emerging-market dynamics. They recommend underweighting the U.S. dollar and U.S. credit, overweighting global duration outside the U.S., and positioning for yield curve steepening amid a stagflationary outlook.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
Finding an Active Edge in Global Bonds (video) | PIMCO
PIMCO's CIO Global Fixed Income Andrew Balls and Head of the Global Desk Sachin Gupta discuss why active management in global bonds offers advantages over passive approaches, citing PIMCO's 30-year track record, global team infrastructure, and quantitative research capabilities. They highlight the inefficiencies created by non-economic market participants and the structural shortcomings of passive benchmarks as key sources of potential alpha in a $130 trillion global bond market.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
Improve Liability-Matching With Active LDI | PIMCO
PIMCO argues that active management can systematically add 0.5–1.5 percentage points of alpha per year to LDI portfolios with minimal additional risk, citing their EUR LDI composite's ~1.4% average annual outperformance and 98%+ correlation to liability benchmarks since 2004. The paper contends that structural bond market inefficiencies—including central bank asset purchases and new-issuance dislocations—create exploitable opportunities that are unique to matching portfolios and cannot be replicated in return portfolios.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOMulti-Asset
Cyclical Outlook: Prevailing Under Pressure | PIMCO
PIMCO's October 2022 cyclical outlook forecasts shallow recessions and rising unemployment across major developed markets, with core inflation proving more entrenched than central banks had anticipated. The firm argues that higher yields now make bonds compelling, favours resilient high-quality credit, and sees downside risks for global equities given stretched earnings expectations and ongoing central bank tightening.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOMulti-Asset
Back to the Future: Term Premium Poised to Rise Again, With Widespread Asset Price Implications | PIMCO
PIMCO's Marc Seidner and Pramol Dhawan argue that the 40-year downtrend in the U.S. term premium is poised to reverse, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising Treasury issuance, and sticky inflation. They outline portfolio implications including a curve-steepening bias, overweights in 5–10 year maturities globally, and underweights in 30-year bonds, warning that even a partial reversion toward historical term premium levels would materially reprice equities, real estate, and other long-duration assets.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
Bank of England: How Low Will Interest Rates Go? | PIMCO
PIMCO argues that the Bank of England's policy rate of 4.75%—the highest among large developed economies—will fall by more than markets currently price, with internal models pointing to a UK neutral rate of 2%–3%. The piece contends that soft productivity growth, easing underlying inflation, and tight fiscal policy support a meaningful decline in gilt yields, with five-year gilt yields expected to eventually fall below equivalent US levels.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
Cyclical Outlook: Fractured Markets, Strong Bonds | PIMCO
PIMCO's April 2023 Cyclical Outlook argues that tighter monetary policy and banking-sector stress (SVB, Credit Suisse) have raised the probability of a sooner and deeper recession across developed markets, while likely capping central bank hiking cycles. The firm expresses a strong preference for high-quality fixed income at current yield levels, citing attractive income generation and downside protection, while cautioning against lower-rated floating-rate credit and noting that private-market asset prices have yet to fully adjust.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
Bonds Shine in Volatile Times (video) | PIMCO
PIMCO Group CIO Daniel Ivascyn and Global Head of Product Strategy Kimberley Stafford discuss the restored diversification role of bonds amid market volatility and central bank divergence, arguing that attractive yields and positive total returns make fixed income compelling on a 3–5 year horizon. Ivascyn favours intermediate-duration, high-quality global bonds—including Australia, New Zealand, the UK, and Canada—recommending investors act before anticipated Fed rate cuts erode the ability to lock in current yields.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOPrivate Markets
Real Estate Outlook: Real Estate Reckoning | PIMCO
PIMCO's inaugural Global Real Estate Investment Forum outlook argues that rising rates, bank stress, and ~$2.4 trillion in maturing global real estate loans are triggering price declines not seen since the GFC, creating a generational entry point. The firm favors real estate debt (new origination, distressed loans, private credit) over equity, with selective equity focus on residential, logistics, and data centers across the US, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOMulti-Asset
Cyclical Outlook: Anti-Goldilocks | PIMCO
PIMCO's March 2022 Cyclical Forum concludes that the Russia-Ukraine war has created an "anti-Goldilocks" stagflationary environment—simultaneously too hot on inflation and too cold on growth—prompting a ~1pp downward revision to developed-market 2022 growth (to 3%) and a ~2pp upward revision to inflation (to 5% average). The firm favors portfolio flexibility, modest duration underweights, limited risk-asset exposure, TIPS for inflation hedging, and high-quality equities, while flagging elevated recession risk and greater cross-country divergence in outcomes.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOMulti-Asset
The Tariff Tug-of-War: Balancing Economic Growth and Trade Relations | PIMCO
PIMCO's Tiffany Wilding, Libby Cantrill, and Marc Seidner analyze the economic and market implications of the Trump administration's tariff actions on Canada, Mexico, and China, estimating that full implementation could raise U.S. inflation by 0.8 percentage points and reduce growth by 1.2 points in the first year. The piece argues that the Fed is likely to remain on hold given elevated inflation and a resilient economy, while viewing global bonds—particularly outside the U.S.—as attractive amid trade-driven uncertainty.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOMulti-Asset
Cyclical Outlook: Inflation Inflection | PIMCO
PIMCO's mid-2021 cyclical outlook argues that developed market growth and inflation are both near their peaks, with supply-driven goods price pressures viewed as transitory and unlikely to spiral. The firm favours modest duration underweights, non-agency US mortgages and select EM bonds, while emphasising portfolio liquidity and flexibility amid rich valuations and limited high-conviction opportunities.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
Starting With a Bang: Fed Cuts Policy Rate | PIMCO
PIMCO's Tiffany Wilding analyzes the Federal Reserve's September 2024 decision to cut the policy rate by 50 basis points—its first cut since 2020—and the accompanying downward revision of 75 bps to median rate projections for both 2024 and 2025. PIMCO expects the Fed to follow up with sequential 25 bp cuts at upcoming meetings to normalize policy toward neutral, while noting that intermediate-maturity bonds may outperform cash during the easing cycle.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
Cuts and Consequences | PIMCO
PIMCO's Marc Seidner and Pramol Dhawan argue that balanced inflation and employment risks justify the Fed beginning its rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, with a baseline forecast of 75 basis points of cuts by year-end. The piece examines historical asset performance across past easing cycles, concluding that bonds offer attractive return potential and low-cost hedging against hard landing scenarios.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
Fixed Income: Strong Starting Point, Stronger Potential (video) | PIMCO
PIMCO's CIO of Non-Traditional Strategies, Marc Seidner, argues that despite strong bond returns over the past 12 months, fixed income remains attractive given 10-year U.S. Treasury yields ranging between 3.75%–4.75%, with additional return potential from high-quality spreads, alpha opportunities, and global diversification. The video highlights opportunities across both public and private markets, including agency MBS, corporate credit, and asset-based lending, emphasising the importance of being compensated for liquidity and complexity risk.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOThematic
Unlocking the Future of Energy Transition (video) | PIMCO
PIMCO portfolio manager Grover Burthey and Generate Capital Executive Chair David Crane discuss key challenges and opportunities in energy transition investing, including the speed advantages of solar and wind in meeting rising power demand. They highlight financing gaps in distributed clean energy projects (typically $5–$100M in size) and identify geothermal, energy efficiency software, and local clean infrastructure as underappreciated investment opportunities.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
The Discreet Charm of Fixed Income | PIMCO
PIMCO researchers Baz, Davis, Guo, and Tsai argue that despite decades of declining real yields and currently negative 10-year real yields in many markets, fixed income retains compelling portfolio benefits including diversification, relative value versus equities, and superior alpha generation potential. The paper presents quantitative analysis suggesting equities may only outperform Treasuries with roughly 65% probability over the next decade, and that private credit continues to outperform public high yield amid ongoing bank regulation.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOMulti-Asset
Asset Allocation Outlook – Negative Correlations, Positive Allocations | PIMCO
PIMCO's November 2024 asset allocation outlook argues that the return of a negative stock-bond correlation, amid moderating inflation and central bank rate cuts, broadens diversification potential in multi-asset portfolios. The piece favours a slight U.S. equity overweight and high-quality core fixed income, while recommending inflation-linked bonds and real assets as hedges against tariff- and fiscal-driven inflationary risks under the incoming Trump administration.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
UK Budget: What Investors Should Know | PIMCO
PIMCO's Rupert Harrison and Peder Beck-Friis analyse the UK Autumn 2025 Budget, noting the Chancellor met fiscal rules with £22 billion headroom despite back-loaded tightening and lingering deficit concerns. They express a constructive view on 5-year gilts, citing expectations of a deeper Bank of England rate-cutting cycle, while remaining cautious on long-end gilts due to fiscal credibility risks.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOFixed Income
ECB: Growth Concerns | PIMCO
PIMCO's Konstantin Veit analyses the ECB's October 2024 inter-meeting rate cut to 3.25%, attributing it to deteriorating growth indicators, soft PMIs, and weak private domestic demand rather than new inflation surprises. The piece outlines a broadly neutral stance on European duration, anticipates a further cut in December, and sees a terminal rate of around 1.85% consistent with neutral rate estimates for the euro area.
12 Jun 2026
PIMCOMulti-Asset
PIMCO’s Regional Economic Outlook | Post-Peak Growth and Shifting Policy | PIMCO
PIMCO's regional economic outlook for 2022 forecasts a global transition from mid-cycle expansion toward late-cycle dynamics, with above-trend but slowing growth across the US, Euro area, UK, and Canada alongside elevated but peaking inflation. The piece details divergent monetary policy paths by region, with the Fed and Bank of Canada expected to begin hiking in March 2022, the ECB remaining patient, and China pivoting toward easing to stabilize slowing growth.
1 Jun 2022