Macro and multi-asset insights from UBS Asset Management.

UBS CIO argues that recent volatility in large-cap tech and AI stocks—driven by Oracle's equity-funded capex guidance and geopolitical risks—does not undermine the broader AI investment cycle, citing firm GPU demand, rising hourly H100 prices, and forecast AI capex of USD 821bn in 2026 and USD 986bn in 2027. The note recommends a more selective, diversified approach tilted toward semiconductors, memory, optics, power components, and semiconductor capital equipment over prior platform leaders.

UBS Asset Management argues that persistent structural uncertainty—driven by geopolitical fragmentation, AI-related disruption, and evolving private credit dynamics—makes active, conviction-based allocation essential in private markets. The piece outlines a five-dimensional framework (performance, manager, environment, specific risk, and liquidity) for dynamically overweighting or underweighting positions across private equity, private credit, real estate, and infrastructure.

UBS Asset Management's CIO of Real Estate, Larissa Belova, argues that the next real estate cycle will be fundamentals-driven rather than supported by cap rate compression, requiring investors to adopt granular asset selection, operational depth, and data integrity. The piece outlines how firms must integrate human judgment with machine-driven analytics, embed research into investment decision-making, and achieve submarket-level precision to generate alpha in the "real estate 3.0" era.

UBS Asset Management's semi-annual alternatives outlook assesses Q1 2026 commercial real estate conditions, noting improved debt availability, rising transaction volumes, and uneven sector performance amid elevated interest rates and macroeconomic headwinds including trade tensions and inflation. The publication advocates selective allocation to resilient property sectors and active management, with modest appreciation expected as AI adoption and demographic trends create incremental value-creation opportunities.

UBS Asset Management presents a structural investment case for UK multi-let industrial (MLI) real estate, highlighting a severely constrained development pipeline (under 1% of existing stock), diversified occupier demand, and 129% cumulative rental growth since 2010. The piece argues that the current entry point is compelling given unrealized rental reversion embedded in upcoming lease events and the potential for selective yield compression as institutional capital re-enters the market.

UBS Asset Management assesses APAC real estate markets against a backdrop of an Iran-conflict-driven energy-price shock, rising interest rates, and IMF growth forecasts that remain positive but uncertain for 2026. Japan and Australia are identified as the preferred markets, with residential the favored sector in both countries, supported by strong rental demand, constrained supply, and resilient fundamentals despite macro headwinds.