Vanguard

Economic and market outlook, portfolio construction and indexing research.

United States11 articlesLast published 8 Jun 2026

Multi-AssetEquitiesFixed Income

Research

Market perspectives

Vanguard's Investment Strategy Group presents its May 2026 market outlook, highlighting broadening earnings momentum beyond mega-cap tech—particularly in small-cap, value, and emerging markets—driven by the AI infrastructure buildout cycle. The piece also includes 10-year asset-class return forecasts via the Vanguard Capital Markets Model and macro projections for major economies, with the U.S. expected to see only one Fed rate cut in 2026 amid sticky inflation and elevated energy prices.

8 Jun 2026

VanguardFixed Income

Introducing Vanguard U.S. High-Yield Corporate Bond Index ETF (VCHY)

Vanguard launched VCHY on June 4, 2026, a passively managed high-yield corporate bond ETF tracking the Bloomberg U.S. High Yield 250MM 2% Issuer Capped Index with an estimated expense ratio of 0.05%, well below the 0.24% index-category average. The piece highlights that VCHY's benchmark has outperformed the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index by approximately 450 bps annually over the past decade, and that 63% of active high-yield fund assets underperformed the broad high-yield index over the same period.

4 Jun 2026

VanguardFixed Income

Active Fixed Income Perspectives Monthly Pulse: May 2026

Vanguard's fixed income leadership team presents their May 2026 monthly outlook, maintaining a base case of resilient U.S. growth driven by strong corporate earnings and AI-led investment, with the Fed likely on hold through year-end amid elevated inflation. Active positioning favors a long-duration bias in U.S. rates, an overweight in higher-quality investment-grade credit, and a long muni duration position supported by steep curve dynamics.

21 May 2026

VanguardFixed Income

Introducing Vanguard's new BondBuilder™ Target Maturity Corporate Bond ETF suite

Vanguard launched 10 BondBuilder™ Target Maturity Corporate Bond ETFs (tickers VBCA–VBCJ, targeting maturities 2027–2036) on March 26, 2026, each holding a diversified portfolio of investment-grade corporate bonds that mature in the fund's target year at an estimated expense ratio of 0.08%. The suite is designed for bond laddering, goals-based planning, and liquidity management, combining the declining-duration profile and return-of-principal characteristics of individual bonds with the diversification and tradability of an ETF wrapper.

18 May 2026

VanguardFixed Income

Portfolio perspectives

Vanguard's Product and Portfolio Strategy team analyzes advisor portfolio data from 2025, finding that four out of five advisors maintained fixed income durations shorter than the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index, and makes the case for rotating into intermediate core bonds for their dual benefit of income and portfolio ballast. The piece uses 20-year historical data to show that 5-to-10-year Treasuries yielded on average 79 basis points more than 0-to-3-year Treasuries, and that intermediate-duration bonds more effectively offset equity drawdowns than short-duration exposures.

18 May 2026

VanguardMulti-Asset

All Insights | Insights | Vanguard Advisors

This page aggregates Vanguard's latest investment insights for financial advisors, covering fixed income, equities, model portfolios, and market perspectives published between April and June 2026. Featured pieces include active fixed income monthly pulse updates, a new high-yield bond ETF launch (VCHY), the Dynamic Active-Passive Model Portfolio introduction, and commentary on AI-driven earnings broadening and global equity rotation.

13 May 2026

VanguardEquities

The great rotation: When valuations start to matter again

Vanguard examines whether the long-anticipated "great rotation" away from U.S. mega-cap tech toward non-U.S. and value-oriented equities is underway, citing attractive valuations in international markets, infrastructure-driven earnings growth, and broadening AI investment as supporting factors. The piece advocates for geographic and style diversification within equity portfolios, noting that the S&P 500 remains near the upper end of its historical valuation range while many non-U.S. markets still trade near long-run averages despite recent narrowing of the gap.

5 May 2026

VanguardFixed Income

AI disruption: A known unknown leads to a bond pickers market

Vanguard argues that while AI-driven bond issuance (potentially $400bn in 2026) is reshaping fixed income spreads—particularly widening credit spreads for investment-grade and high-yield technology issuers—the sector remains far less concentrated in fixed income than in equities. The firm advocates for active credit selection to exploit growing dispersion between AI winners and losers across rating spectrums and industries, flagging a likely phase shift in the next 18–24 months as markets scrutinize AI implementation ROI.

4 May 2026

VanguardMulti-Asset

Vanguard’s 2026 economic and market outlook

Vanguard projects modest U.S. GDP growth of ~2.25% in 2026, with AI-driven capital investment seen as a key long-term growth catalyst and a 60% probability of achieving 3% real GDP in coming years. The outlook favors high-quality fixed income given a neutral Fed rate of ~3.5% and sticky inflation above 2%, while expressing cautious near-term optimism on U.S. equities and a longer-term preference for value and non-U.S. developed market stocks.

23 Apr 2026

VanguardIndustry

What AI can—and can't—replace in financial advice

Vanguard's expert perspective argues that AI will automate analytics-driven advisory tasks—such as portfolio rebalancing, financial planning simulations, and data aggregation—but cannot replicate the empathy, emotional intelligence, and trust-building that define high-value client relationships. The piece offers a practical framework mapping AI impact against client behavioral preferences, and identifies the traits advisors need to thrive in an AI-augmented environment.

23 Apr 2026

VanguardMulti-Asset

Roth conversions could offer more value than your clients expect

This Vanguard advisor-focused piece argues that the break-even tax rate (BETR) framework demonstrates Roth IRA conversions are advantageous in more scenarios than a simple current-vs.-future tax rate comparison suggests, particularly when conversion taxes are paid from outside taxable accounts. The article outlines key Roth benefits—including no RMDs, tax-free growth, and Social Security/Medicare flexibility—and introduces a BETR calculator to help advisors quantify conversion value for clients approaching retirement.

22 Apr 2026