Fixed income market commentary and research from Western Asset.

Western Asset argues that high-grade USD-denominated emerging market debt is a "must have" allocation for insurance portfolios, citing its predominantly investment-grade composition, attractive yield pick-up, low capital charges under NAIC classifications, and superior risk-adjusted returns versus comparable US credits. The piece presents empirical evidence that high-quality EM debt delivered higher total returns with similar or lower volatility than US peers even through periods of severe EM stress, and highlights bottom-up credit research and diversification benefits for insurers.

Western Asset's quarterly scorecard assesses the US consumer across six dimensions - employment, spending, real income, balance sheets, wealth/net worth, and credit performance - awarding an overall grade of B+ for Q4 2024. The outlook is stable, supported by a resilient labor market, robust real spending growth, and strong household balance sheets, though consumer sentiment and credit performance remain areas of relative weakness.
Western Asset argues that tariff uncertainty under Trump's Trade War 2.0 reinforces the case for diversified multi-asset credit (MAC) solutions spanning high-yield, bank loans, and securitized credit. The piece cites strong corporate balance sheets, compelling all-in yields, and supportive technicals as fundamental reasons to maintain credit exposure despite two-sided macro risks.