Yarra Capital Management
Market insights and commentary from Yarra Capital Management.
Australia5 articlesLast published 15 Jun 2026
EquitiesFixed Income
Research
Yarra Capital ManagementFixed Income
Phil Strano: Yields take centre stage again
Yarra Capital Management's Head of Australian Credit Research examines the 2026 Australian credit market, where rising government bond yields (3-year up ~30bps YTD), surging primary issuance (up 29% to $186bn), and tightening credit spreads have made income the dominant return driver for investment grade portfolios. The note argues for maintaining modest interest rate duration as a hedge, anticipating a H2 2026 recalibration where yields fall and spreads widen, while highlighting that IG default rates remain near zero, supporting attractive risk-adjusted returns of 6–7%.
15 Jun 2026
Yarra Capital ManagementMulti-Asset
Tim Toohey: Data may finally be breaking. RBA to pivot?
Yarra Capital Management's Head of Macro and Strategy, Tim Toohey, argues that slowing GDP growth (0.3% in Q1 2026), a sharply rising unemployment rate, and contained inflation together make a compelling case that the RBA has finished hiking and will shift to an easing bias by end-2026. The piece draws on National Accounts data, NAB business surveys, wage price index trends, and an analysis of the Budget's negative gearing changes to support the view that downside risks to Australian growth are now dominant.
4 Jun 2026
Yarra Capital ManagementMulti-Asset
Dion Hershan: Playbook for a Hard Landing?
Yarra Capital Management's Dion Hershan argues that Australia's proposed 2026/27 Budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, layered on top of an already fragile economy, risk engineering a hard landing through cascading effects on property prices, consumer confidence, housing starts, and capital allocation. The piece contends that the tax changes will distort investment flows toward low-risk assets, further concentrate the ASX around large-cap blue chips, and generate minimal incremental tax revenue relative to the economic damage inflicted.
2 Jun 2026
Yarra Capital ManagementFixed Income
The income opportunity has rarely been better
Yarra Capital Management's Co-Head of Australian Fixed Income, Roy Keenan, argues that fixed income now offers yields above 6% with equity-like returns at significantly lower risk. He makes the case for locking in higher fixed rates as the economic cycle transitions from inflation to growth, citing narrowing after-tax spreads versus equities, resetting credit spreads, and over-allocation to floating-rate exposure.
31 May 2026
Yarra Capital ManagementEquities
Joel Fleming: Watching the AI Capex Supercycle
Yarra Capital Management's microcap portfolio manager Joel Fleming discusses how the AI, data centre, and electrification capex cycle is creating opportunities in Australian small and microcap equities, particularly in resources and "picks and shovels" sectors like engineering and electrical services. Fleming argues that improving valuations and differentiated earnings growth make the structural tailwinds durable despite ongoing macro headwinds for smaller companies.
14 May 2026